Real estate ETF IYR will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $95.97, 4% from $99.97 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 40% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.158.

Derived from: Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot 'hawkish hold + guidance' equilibrium implying no near-term rate relief, and TLT's regime-adjusted 14d expected move (±2.6%) signaling continued rate-sensitivity stress; rate-sensitive real estate should underperform on a hawkish Fed communication event on 2026-09-16.

Probability

40%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 254d ago

Made

Sep 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.