The South African rand (USD/ZAR) will trade above 19.50 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as emerging market currencies weaken amid multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios and risk-off positioning

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 63% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.401.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory analysis showing Iran Nuclear Breakout and US-China Trade War both at Fearon failure (0% bargaining range), plus emerging market vulnerability during risk-off regimes. Compound probability: P(risk-off continuation) * P(EM currency weakness | risk-off) = 0.85 * 0.85 = 0.72

Probability

63%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 10172d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.