SPY reference price at prediction creation (March 8) was 648.57. During the evidence window (March 8 - April 7), SPY experienced significant volatility and support level tests. Key support break occurred with SPY declining to 631.97 on March 30 (lowest point in window), representing a -2.56% decline from the reference level. SPY recovered to 658.93 by April 7. The prediction correctly identified the need for technical monitoring as SPY did test lower support levels during this period.
Resolved Apr 7, 2026
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 89% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-07. Brier score 0.012.
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.
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