Search results showed general discussions about energy disruptions and geopolitical risks, including 'Force majeure in focus: LNG contracts tested by geopolitical shocks' (Gulf Business, Apr 7) and various articles about Middle East conflict impacts on energy. However, no specific announcements by European energy companies of force majeure declarations or supply disruptions were found within the evidence window. The articles discuss potential risks rather than actual company announcements. Actual: 0 force majeure announcements, Required: 1 announcement, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.
Resolved Apr 8, 2026
Geopolitical
LNG
At least one European energy company will announce force majeure or supply disruption within 30 days as Red Sea shipping scenario mixed outcomes create LNG delivery delays
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 26% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-08. Brier score 0.066.
Derived from: Red Sea shipping game theory scenario (mixed outcome, 2 Nash equilibria) and European energy security vulnerabilities in knowledge bank
Probability
26%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Apr 8174d ago
Made
Price Target$30
Regimetransitional
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .
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