IEMG (iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) will close below $48.00 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Iran conflict escalation and confirmed Fearon bargaining failure create emerging market capital flight

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-17 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-16. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows 'Iran Nuclear Breakout: Bargaining range: 0% (FEARON FAILURE - conflict structurally likely)' with structural conditions favoring conflict. Live intelligence confirms active strikes on infrastructure. EM ETFs typically underperform during Middle East conflicts. Base rate adjusted down due to calibration feedback.

Probability

10%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 16166d ago

Made

Mar 17

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.