MISSBrier 0.010

Data-resolved: TRY moved from 312.50 to 314.50 (0.64%) during 2026-05-20 to 2026-06-03. Target: below 35. Target not reached. Low was 307.81.

Resolved Jun 3, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongTRY

Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) will weaken above 35.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Bosphorus Strait strategic importance during wartime creates impossible policy trade-offs between NATO alignment and economic stability

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-20 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-06-03. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range), 80% escalation risk score, and Turkey's documented dual-alignment strategy creating currency defense pressures under wartime conditions. Reference class: policy_action/geopolitical 28% base rate, adjusted down for specific currency threshold.

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Jun 3118d ago
Made: May 20

Price Target$35

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) will weaken above 35.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Bosphorus Strait chokepoint concerns and NATO Article 5 readiness create currency pressure on Turkey's dual-alignment strategy

market10%HIT

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Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) will weaken above 35.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Bosphorus Strait strategic importance during wartime creates impossible policy trade-offs between NATO alignment and economic stability

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