Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) will weaken above 35.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Bosphorus Strait strategic importance during wartime creates impossible policy trade-offs between NATO alignment and economic stability
NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-20 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-06-03. Brier score 0.010.
Derived from: Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range), 80% escalation risk score, and Turkey's documented dual-alignment strategy creating currency defense pressures under wartime conditions. Reference class: policy_action/geopolitical 28% base rate, adjusted down for specific currency threshold.
- Probability
- 10%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Jun 3118d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.