Micron (MU) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $965.76, 5% from $1016.59 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 35% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-15. Brier score 0.420.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (narrow 25% bargaining range, china/us gray-zone escalation vs economic deterrence, critical coalition fracture risk) implies elevated semiconductor supply-chain risk premium; sector-wide chip weakness already confirmed in prior resolved SOXX-underperformance prediction.

Probability

35%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 209d ago

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.