MISSBrier 0.207

Have price data for both GLD and TLT during March 29 - April 12, 2026. GLD moved from $414.70 to $437.13 (+5.4%). TLT moved from ~$85.64 to $86.49 (+1.0%). Both assets moved in same positive direction showing continued positive correlation, not the breakdown below 0.30 predicted. Visual inspection of daily price movements shows similar directional moves throughout period. Actual correlation appears to remain positive and well above 0.30 threshold. Required: correlation < 0.30, Actual: correlation remained positive (~0.75 estimated), therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 13, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongGLD-TLT correlation

The correlation between GLD and TLT will break below 0.30 within 14 days as wartime safe-haven flows create divergent monetary policy expectations and real rate dynamics during active Middle East conflict

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-29 at 45% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-13. Brier score 0.207.

Derived from: Wartime regime creating unusual safe-haven flow patterns, current GLD at 414.70 showing elevated precious metals demand, and game theory analysis showing multiple zero Nash equilibrium scenarios creating policy uncertainty that should break traditional bond-gold correlation

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 12170d ago
Made: Mar 29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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