The correlation between GLD and TLT will break below 0.30 within 14 days as wartime safe-haven flows create divergent monetary policy expectations and real rate dynamics during active Middle East conflict
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-29 at 45% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-13. Brier score 0.207.
Derived from: Wartime regime creating unusual safe-haven flow patterns, current GLD at 414.70 showing elevated precious metals demand, and game theory analysis showing multiple zero Nash equilibrium scenarios creating policy uncertainty that should break traditional bond-gold correlation
- Probability
- 45%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Apr 12170d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .