MISSBrier 0.464

Found reference to 'BTP-Bund spread rises above 100 basis points' on March 23, 2026, but this indicates 100 bp (1.00%), well below the required 200 basis points (2.00%). No specific daily data showing spreads above 200 bp. The available evidence suggests spreads were around 100 bp, not 200+ bp. Required: above 200 bp. Observed: ~100 bp. 100 < 200, therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 5, 2026

Market

LONG wrongBTP-BUND

European peripheral sovereign spreads (Italy 10Y-German 10Y) will widen above 200 basis points on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as European banking stress from wartime energy costs and potential OPEC+ cuts create credit differentiation

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-22 at 68% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-05. Brier score 0.464.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Iran Nuclear Breakout with 0% Fearon bargaining range (structural conflict likely) + OPEC+ Production Decision fragile equilibrium + European banking stress mentioned in risk scenarios + wartime regime classification indicating energy disruptions

Probability: 68%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 5177d ago
Made: Mar 22

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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