Indonesian Rupiah (USD/IDR) will weaken past 16,200 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Malacca tensions and current account pressure from elevated energy imports create emerging market currency stress

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 58% probability. Resolved: Void on 2026-03-22.

Derived from: Indonesia's vulnerability as Malacca Strait co-controller with high energy import dependency + European Energy Security Bayesian scenario (50% bargaining range, stable equilibrium toward renewables acceleration) reducing fossil fuel export demand. Compound probability incorporates EM currency weakness base rates during geopolitical stress

Probability

58%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 10172d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.