MISSBrier 0.311

USD/HUF data shows currency stayed below 370 throughout March 15 - April 14 period. Highest close was 343.13 on March 18. Current price 308.53. Currency actually strengthened (USD/HUF declined) rather than weakened. Actual: 0 days above 370, Required: at least 3 days, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 14, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongHUF

The Hungarian Forint (USD/HUF) will weaken above 370 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as NATO readiness tensions and energy import dependency create emerging market currency stress

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-15 at 56% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-14. Brier score 0.311.

Derived from: Knowledge bank shows 'NATO Military Europe Defense' intelligence with escalation concerns, plus Bayesian analysis showing escalation probabilities above 50% in multiple theaters. Base rate for major FX pair moves 66% per week, but reduced confidence due to calibration feedback showing market category gap of -33pp

Probability: 56%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 14168d ago
Made: Mar 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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