MISSBrier 0.141

Treasury 30-year bond futures (ZB) price data shows closing prices during evidence window (2026-03-19 to 2026-04-02). Reviewing all closes: 3/19: 114.8125, 3/20: 113.3125, 3/23: 113.1875, 3/24: 112.625, 3/25: 113.5625, 3/26: 112.6875, 3/27: 112.1875, 3/30: 113.5, 3/31: 113.875, 4/1: 113.71875, 4/2: 113.9375. No closing price reached 140-00 (140.00) during the evidence window. Highest close was 114.8125 on 3/19. Required: 140.00 on 2+ days. Actual: Maximum 114.8125, 114.8125 < 140.00 therefore threshold NOT met. Count of days above 140.00: 0 days < 2 days required.

Resolved Apr 9, 2026

Market

LONG wrongZB

Treasury 30-year bond futures (ZB) will close above 140-00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as wartime regime flight-to-quality overwhelms inflation concerns amid Strait of Hormuz Crisis 67% escalation probability

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 37% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-09. Brier score 0.141.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Crisis Bayesian analysis shows 67% escalation probability, plus wartime regime detection requires modeling direct safe haven flows rather than range-bound assumptions

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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