HITBrier 0.152

USD/CLP exceeded 920 on multiple trading days within prediction window. Historical data shows: March 19: 927.76 (high), March 20: 930.11 (high), March 22: 933.58 (high), March 26: 933.00 (high), March 27: 939.89 (high), March 30: 936.17 (high), March 31: 933.87 (high). Count of days above 920: at least 7 days. Actual highest: 939.89, Required: 920, 939.89 > 920 therefore threshold MET. At least 3 days required, 7+ days observed.

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSD/CLP

Chilean Peso (USD/CLP) will weaken above 920 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as copper demand concerns from Taiwan Strait tensions create resource currency pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 61% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-17. Brier score 0.152.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis Bayesian analysis shows 53% escalation probability with 'china: Gray zone escalation, us: Economic deterrence' creating semiconductor supply chain disruption. Chile as major copper exporter faces currency pressure from industrial metal demand destruction. Base rate: major FX moves 1.5%+ per week at 64%, scaled for emerging market volatility.

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 17165d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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