MISSBrier 0.193

Data-resolved: XLV moved from 171.45 to 168.39 (-1.78%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 176.5. Target not reached. High was 169.10.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongXLV

XLV (healthcare sector ETF) will close above $176.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 44% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.193.

Risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed wartime conditions) typically drives defensive sector rotation into low-beta healthcare names as capital exits high-beta tech/small-cap exposure flagged in the thesis.

Probability: 44%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2024d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$176.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLV (Health Care Select Sector SPDR) will close at least 2% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $171.76, 2% from $168.39 at creation)

market85%MISS

XLV will close above $171.30 on at least one trading day by November 7, 2026.

market68%HIT

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XLV (healthcare sector ETF) will close above $176.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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