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NEXUS

Connect world events to market decisions. Research the evidence, test your thesis, and follow the outcome.

A polyxmedia product

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Track Record

HITBrier 0.078

Early-confirmed: DAX hit target below 17500 on 2026-03-09, 2026-03-10. Current price: 43.86 (started at 43.81).

Resolved Mar 11, 2026

Market

SHORT correctDAX

DAX (German stock index) will close below 17,500 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as European energy security concerns and potential OPEC production cuts create industrial recession fears

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-11. Brier score 0.078.

Derived from: European Energy Security game theory scenario (EU accelerate renewables vs Russia focus Asian markets) and OPEC production cuts scenario affecting European industrial demand

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 8174d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$17,500

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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