MISSBrier 0.174

Data-resolved: XAR moved from 247.67 to 241.63 (-2.44%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-23. Target: above 257.58. Target not reached. High was 252.91.

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Market

LONG wrongXAR

Aerospace & defense sector ETF XAR will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $257.58, 4% from $247.67 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 42% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-23. Brier score 0.174.

Elevated defense-sector convergence signal (Erev Rosh Hashana + UN General Assembly, defense/diplomacy tags) combined with fragile Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (critical fracture risk, 53% escalation probability) and confirmed North Korea/PLA provocation cycle support continued defense-sector demand.

Probability: 42%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2321d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$257.58

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XAR (SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $232.19, 3% from $239.37 at creation)

market79%HIT

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Aerospace & defense sector ETF XAR will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $257.58, 4% from $247.67 at creation)

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