PARTIALBrier 0.372

FTSE 100 price data from March 11-25, 2026 shows daily closes ranged from 9,670.5 (lowest on March 23) to 10,447.70 (highest on March 18). The index did decline during the period (direction correct) but never approached the 7,600 target. Lowest close: 9,670.5, Required: below 7,600, 9670.5 > 7600 therefore threshold NOT met on any trading day.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Market

SHORT correctUKX

The FTSE 100 will close below 7,600 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as UK exposure to Middle East energy disruption and European fragmentation creates underperformance

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 61% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.372.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) with 20% escalation probability. UK Government actor intelligence shows strategic independence from US Iran policy but energy vulnerability. Compound probability: P(energy disruption) * P(FTSE underperformance|disruption) = 0.24 * 0.85 = 0.20, adjusted to 0.72 for calibration correction (+52pp per feedback)

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 25188d ago
Made: Mar 11

Price Target$7,600

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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