MISSBrier 0.064

Web search within evidence window (2026-05-18 to 2026-06-01) found only routine IMF talks: 'Pakistan, IMF continue talks on FY2027 budget and reforms' (May 21, 2026). No emergency announcements or new financial assistance requests found. Actual: 0 emergency announcements, Required: 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrong

Pakistan will announce emergency International Monetary Fund negotiations or bilateral financial assistance request within 14 days as regional energy cost pressures and currency defense requirements exceed current fiscal capacity

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-18 at 25% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-06-01. Brier score 0.064.

Derived from: Actor intelligence showing Pakistan Military Establishment under pressure from cross-border operations while attempting diplomatic insertion, wartime regime energy cost pressures, Iran escalation creating regional spillover effects forcing emergency economic measures. Base rate for policy_action/geopolitical: 28% hit rate, adjusting up slightly for specific actor pressure documented to 34%.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Jun 1120d ago
Made: May 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Pakistan will announce emergency International Monetary Fund negotiations or bilateral financial assistance request within 14 days as regional energy cost pressures and currency defense requirements exceed current fiscal capacity

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