Italy's 10-year government bond yield (BTP) will trade above 4.25% on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as European fragmentation risks emerge from multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium geopolitical scenarios

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 28% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-18. Brier score 0.077.

Derived from: Fearon bargaining failure in Iran nuclear (0% range) and US-China trade (0% range) create structural instability. European peripheral debt vulnerable during risk-off regimes. Compound probability: P(geopolitical stress) * P(BTP widening|stress) = 0.8 * 0.85 = 0.68

Probability

28%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 10172d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.