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NEXUS

Connect world events to market decisions. Research the evidence, test your thesis, and follow the outcome.

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Track Record

MISSBrier 0.256

Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

Resolved Apr 9, 2026

Market

LONGTurkish defense vs market

Turkish defense sector stocks (DEFE ETF proxy) will outperform broader Turkish market by at least 5% within 14 days as NATO Article 5 readiness creates procurement acceleration

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 51% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-09. Brier score 0.256.

Derived from: Multiple game theory scenarios show defense sector benefits from elevated geopolitical tensions. Turkey positioned between Iran nuclear crisis and Taiwan Strait tensions. Defense cooperation announcement base rate 25% per month supports sector rotation into defense assets.

Probability: 51%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 1181d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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