MISSBrier 0.038

Web search for shipping companies announcing route modifications in Red Sea/Persian Gulf during March 23-30, 2026 evidence window returned 0 specific company announcements. Found general Iran-Israel conflict coverage but no specific shipping route modification announcements from major companies. Actual: 0 companies, Required: 3 companies, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met

Resolved Mar 30, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrongSHIPPING_ANNOUNCEMENTS

At least 3 major shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Persian Gulf route modifications within 7 days as Iran-Israel conflict escalation materializes the Strait of Hormuz Crisis scenario projected at 67% probability

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-23 at 19% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-30. Brier score 0.038.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Strait of Hormuz Crisis with 67% escalation probability and Iran displaying calculating/hawkish types. Live intelligence confirms sustained Red Sea disruptions already occurring. Pattern suggests expansion to Persian Gulf shipping given zero-equilibrium Iran nuclear dynamics.

Probability: 19%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 30183d ago
Made: Mar 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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