General Electric (GE) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $353.98, 5% from $337.12 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 35% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.123.

Aerospace/defense demand tailwind from the 80% overall escalation risk score and confluence of Taiwan Strait, DPRK provocation, and Hormuz stress events on the active signal calendar during the September-October window.

Probability

35%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 209d ago

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.