MISSBrier 0.109

Data-resolved: ZIM moved from 28.58 to 30.10 (5.32%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 26.87. Target not reached. Low was 28.85.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongZIM

ZIM (ZIM Integrated Shipping) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $26.87, 6% from $28.58 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 33% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.109.

Confirmed ongoing Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb Houthi attacks (missile strikes on tankers, Reuters-confirmed shipping slowdown) directly pressure container/shipping carrier margins and route economics.

Probability: 33%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$26.87

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

ZIM (ZIM Integrated Shipping) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $31.91, 6% from $30.10 at creation)

market60%

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ZIM (ZIM Integrated Shipping) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $26.87, 6% from $28.58 at creation)

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