MISSBrier 0.200

Gathered copper futures (HG=F) and aluminum futures (ALI=F) daily data from 2026-03-18 to 2026-04-17. Copper prices ranged from $5.34 to $6.10 per pound. Aluminum prices ranged from $3076 to $3647.75 per metric ton. Converting aluminum to per-pound basis (÷2204.62), aluminum ranged from $1.39 to $1.65 per pound. Copper-to-aluminum ratio calculation: March 18: 5.554/(3282.25/2204.62) = 5.554/1.489 = 3.73. March 20: 5.343/(3102/2204.62) = 5.343/1.407 = 3.80. April 17: 6.103/(3596.75/2204.62) = 6.103/1.631 = 3.74. Ratios consistently ranged between 3.2-3.8, never approaching 1.10. Minimum observed ratio was approximately 1.69 on April 9 (5.748/3.374). Actual: 1.69, Required: <1.10, 1.69 > 1.10 therefore threshold NOT met. Direction incorrect - ratio increased rather than decreased.

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongHG/ALU ratio

Copper-to-aluminum ratio will fall below 1.10 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as wartime regime supply chain disruptions favor strategic metals over industrial metals

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 45% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-18. Brier score 0.200.

Derived from: Wartime regime classification with confirmed supply disruptions. Aluminum futures already predicted to spike above $2,650 (ID pending), while copper faces demand destruction from semiconductor supply chain risks per Taiwan gray zone escalation scenario (53% probability). Base rate: major metal ratio moves ~25% per month in stress periods, adjusted down for ratio complexity.

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 17165d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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