MISSBrier 0.347

XLE performance from March 20 close (59.31) to April 17 close (55.02): ((55.02-59.31)/59.31)*100 = -7.23%. XLK performance from March 20 close (135.29) to April 17 close (154.35): ((154.35-135.29)/135.29)*100 = +14.08%. Relative performance: XLE vs XLK = -7.23% - 14.08% = -21.31%. Using April 19 prices: XLE current 55.02 vs XLK current 154.35 gives similar underperformance. Actual: -21.31%, Required: +4.0%, -21.31 < 4.0 therefore threshold NOT met. XLE significantly underperformed instead of outperforming.

Resolved Apr 19, 2026

Market

LONG wrongXLE/XLK

Energy sector (XLE) will outperform technology sector (XLK) by more than 4% during the 30-day period ending April 19 as multiple energy-disruptive game theory scenarios converge with fragile equilibria

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-20 at 59% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-19. Brier score 0.347.

Derived from: OPEC+ Production Decision game theory (Saudi cuts/US SPR release, 70% confidence, fragile stability) combined with Strait of Hormuz Crisis projection (Iran brinkmanship/US negotiate, 70% confidence) and Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon failure. Energy scarcity premium should drive XLE outperformance versus growth-sensitive tech.

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 19163d ago
Made: Mar 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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