PARTIALBrier 0.285

USD/MXN price data shows the peso never weakened below 18.50 during March 11-25, 2026. Highest close was 17.95809 on March 20. Peak intraday high was 18.08824 on March 23, but this did not reach the 18.50 threshold. The peso did weaken (USD/MXN rose) from March 11 close of 17.6719 to highs near 18.08, so direction was correct but magnitude insufficient. Actual peak: 18.08824, Required: 18.50, 18.08824 < 18.50 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Market

SHORT correctMXN

The Mexican peso (MXN) will weaken below 18.50 per USD on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as risk-off flows and potential North American supply chain disruption fears create emerging market currency pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 53% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.285.

Derived from: Multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios (Iran nuclear, US-China trade) creating broad emerging market risk-off. Mexico exposed to both USMCA trade disruption and commodity price volatility. Calibration feedback shows 14-day timeframe has poor Brier score but using due to currency volatility clustering. Compound probability reflects EM contagion risk.

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 25188d ago
Made: Mar 11

Price Target$18.5

Regime

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peacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.