MISSBrier 0.401

CHF/USD daily closes from March 11-25, 2026: All values were ABOVE 0.88 throughout the period. Closes ranged from 1.28248 (March 11) to 1.25908 (March 14), with the lowest close at 1.25908. Required: below 0.8800 on at least 2 days. Actual: 0 days below 0.8800. 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met. Note: CHF/USD above 1.0 means USD is stronger, not CHF strengthening.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongCHF/USD

The Swiss Franc (CHF/USD) will strengthen below 0.8800 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios drive safe-haven demand for non-dollar alternatives

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 63% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.401.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis showing Iran Nuclear Breakout and US-China Trade War both have 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) with escalation probabilities of 20% and 0% respectively. Multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium games create structural instability requiring safe-haven positioning beyond USD. Compound probability: P(geopolitical stress materializes) * P(CHF safe-haven flows | stress) = 0.85 * 0.85 = 0.72

Probability: 63%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 25188d ago
Made: Mar 11

Price Target$0.88

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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