Morgan Stanley (MS) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $192.39, 5% from $202.52 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-19.

US Treasury Supply Crisis Bayesian scenario (fragile 38% bargaining range, 'front-load short-term bills / markets demand higher term premium') and risk-off regime pressure financials broadly; MS already broke down through its prior 4% threshold, and continued term-premium stress supports further downside over a longer window.

Probability

85%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Oct 19in 20d

Made

Sep 19

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.