MISSBrier 0.371

Platinum (PL) vs Gold (GLD) relative performance March 20 - April 19: PL start: $33.83 (March 20), PL end: $38.48 (April 19), PL return: +13.75%. GLD start: $413.38 (March 20), GLD end: $445.93 (April 19), GLD return: +7.88%. Relative performance: 13.75% - 7.88% = 5.87%. Actual: 5.87%, Required: 3.0%, 5.87% > 3.0% therefore threshold MET. However, using ETF proxy prices for futures contracts may be inaccurate - actual futures prices could differ significantly from ETF share prices.

Resolved Apr 20, 2026

Market

PL vs GC

Platinum futures (PL) will outperform gold futures (GC) by at least 3% within 30 days as industrial demand from wartime regime manufacturing and auto sector hedging exceeds safe haven flows to gold

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-20 at 61% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-20. Brier score 0.371.

Derived from: Wartime regime classification with supply chain disruption scenarios active. Game theory analysis shows multiple mixed equilibria indicating sustained uncertainty requiring industrial hedging. Platinum has dual industrial/precious metal properties that could outperform pure safe haven assets during manufacturing stress.

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 19163d ago
Made: Mar 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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