PARTIALBrier 0.563

STOXX Europe 600 data shows declining trend during prediction window (March 9-23, 2026). Starting price March 9: 594.92. Lowest close during window was March 23: 576.78. Multiple days showed declining prices but lowest point was 559.05 (intraday low March 23). Required: close below 480 on at least 2 trading days. Actual: lowest close was 576.78, which is 96.78 points above the 480 target. 576.78 > 480, therefore threshold NOT met. Direction was correct (downward movement from 594.92 to 576.78 = -3.05% decline).

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Market

SHORT correctSXXP

STOXX Europe 600 (SXXP) will close below 480 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as NATO Article 5 readiness and Iran escalation risk create European equity weakness

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 75% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.563.

Derived from: NATO Article 5 readiness signal (Secretary-General Rutte statement) + 80% geopolitical escalation risk score + European exposure to Middle East energy disruption

Probability: 75%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 23190d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$480

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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