Microsoft (MSFT) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target below $479.71, 4% from $499.70 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 27% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-14. Brier score 0.071.

QQQ RSI 28.4 capitulation-zone reading with negative MACD histogram (-3.621) and wartime risk-off regime; megacap tech with China/Taiwan supply-chain exposure is a direct transmission channel for renewed selling pressure.

Probability

27%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

Sep 1415d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.