MISSBrier 0.116

Data-resolved: JPM moved from 358.64 to 349.67 (-2.50%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 344.29. Target not reached. Low was 343.07.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctJPM

JPM (JPMorgan) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $344.29, 4% from $358.64 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 34% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.116.

Risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38), hawkish Fed hold equilibrium (55% confidence bearish), and SPY/QQQ deep oversold conditions with no fundamental catalyst per thesis; large-cap financials are typically among the highest-beta decliners in broad risk-off equity selloffs.

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$344.29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as risk-off deepens and the zero-equilibrium Fed Rate Cycle Nash outcome (hawkish hold, volatility hedging) pressures financials (target below $332.19, 5% from $349.67 at creation)

market65%

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JPM (JPMorgan) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $344.29, 4% from $358.64 at creation)

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