Real estate sector ETF XLRE will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $42.61, 3% from $43.93 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 36% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.404.

Fed Rate Cycle Pivot Bayesian assessment (hawkish hold, bearish, 55% confidence) pressures rate-sensitive REIT exposure as no rate-cut equilibrium exists.

Probability

36%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 218d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.