Market
LONGIBMPendingIBM will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $246.99, 4% from $237.49 at creation)
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 75% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-01.
Contrarian technical thesis: SPY/QQQ RSI readings near capitulation levels (27.3/28.4) historically precede short-covering bounces concentrated in defensive/enterprise-software names less exposed to Taiwan Strait semiconductor supply-chain risk than pure-play chip names.
- Probability
- 75%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Oct 1in 2d
- Made
Price Target$246.99
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.