Japanese high-yield corporate bonds (JNK proxy behavior) will underperform JGB equivalents by at least 2% within 30 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability (53%) creates Asian credit risk repricing

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 33% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-26. Brier score 0.109.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis Bayesian analysis showing 53% escalation probability with narrow 25% bargaining range, Japan's strategic exposure to Taiwan Strait shipping lanes, and credit spread widening patterns during regional geopolitical stress

Probability

33%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 18164d ago

Made

Mar 19

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.