Philippines PSEi Index will decline more than 4% from current levels within 14 days as Strait of Malacca chokepoint concerns and regional supply chain disruption fears create Southeast Asian equity weakness
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 11% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.013.
Derived from: Wartime regime with active shipping disruptions. Malacca Strait handles 25% of global trade. Philippines exposed to supply chain disruption and regional instability spillover. Compound probability: P(continued escalation) * P(regional equity weakness|escalation) = 0.80 * 0.87 = 0.70
- Probability
- 11%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Mar 25188d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .