PARTIALBrier 0.013

PSEi closed at 6158.33 on March 11, 2026 (creation date). Current price is 5936.20 as of March 25, 2026. Decline = ((5936.20 - 6158.33) / 6158.33) * 100 = -3.61%. Actual: 3.61%, Required: >4%, 3.61% < 4% therefore threshold NOT met. The index did move in the predicted direction (down) amid regional tensions as evidenced by news reports about shipping chokepoint concerns and Middle East conflicts affecting Southeast Asian trade routes.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Market

SHORT correctPSEi

Philippines PSEi Index will decline more than 4% from current levels within 14 days as Strait of Malacca chokepoint concerns and regional supply chain disruption fears create Southeast Asian equity weakness

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 11% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.013.

Derived from: Wartime regime with active shipping disruptions. Malacca Strait handles 25% of global trade. Philippines exposed to supply chain disruption and regional instability spillover. Compound probability: P(continued escalation) * P(regional equity weakness|escalation) = 0.80 * 0.87 = 0.70

Probability: 11%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 25188d ago
Made: Mar 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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