MISSBrier 0.298

DJP price data available. Reference price at creation (March 23): $45.51 (close). DJP current price (April 22): $47.79. Price movement from March 23 to April 22: ((47.79 - 45.51) / 45.51) * 100 = 5.01%. Checking peak during window: highest close was $49.06 on April 6. Peak gain: ((49.06 - 45.51) / 45.51) * 100 = 7.80%. Actual gain: 7.80%, Required: >8.0%, 7.80% < 8.0% therefore threshold NOT met. Direction was correct (up) but magnitude insufficient.

Resolved Apr 22, 2026

Market

LONG wrongDJP

Agricultural commodity index (DJP) will gain more than 8% within 30 days as multiple zero-Nash equilibria scenarios drive food security stockpiling ahead of the intensity-5 Erev Pesach convergence

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-23 at 55% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-22. Brier score 0.298.

Derived from: Game theory analysis showing zero Nash equilibria in Iran Nuclear and US-China Trade scenarios, plus intensity-5 Erev Pesach convergence on March 31 with 9 convergent events. Historical pattern of pre-holiday stockpiling. Reference class: percentage_threshold/market hit rate 71% but reduced confidence due to red team pattern-seeking criticism.

Probability: 55%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 22160d ago
Made: Mar 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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