Adobe (ADBE) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $233.90, 6% from $248.83 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 38% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.147.

SMH and QQQ technical capitulation (RSI sub-30, negative MACD histograms) combined with Taiwan Strait fragile Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) pressures broader technology/software valuations tied to semiconductor supply-chain risk pricing.

Probability

38%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 254d ago

Made

Sep 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.