Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium remains fragile (25% bargaining range, 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) directly threatens semiconductor/tech supply chains; QQQ and SMH already deeply oversold (RSI 28.4), risk-off regime confirmed by Fear & Greed at 38.

Probability: 81%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 5in 6d
Made: Sep 21

Price Target$183.91

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Related Forecasts

XLK (technology sector ETF) will close below $182.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray-zone escalation (Bayesian equilibrium: China gray zone escalation, US economic deterrence, fragile stability) compounds semiconductor supply-chain risk pricing.

market38%MISS

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