Halliburton (HAL) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $38.92, 5% from $37.07 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 42% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.173.

Sustained Hormuz-driven oil price premium (Brent confirmed >$90, USO uptrend) increases drilling/services demand outlook for oilfield services names, a direct beneficiary distinct from already-covered upstream/majors (XOM, CVX, OXY).

Probability

42%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 218d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.