MISSBrier 0.362

USD/KRW data shows the won WEAKENED during the prediction window. Starting from 1501.36 on March 21 to 1511.66 on April 5. The prediction required USD/KRW to go below 1320 (won strengthening) on at least 3 trading days. Actual data shows USD/KRW remained above 1480 throughout the period, never approaching 1320. Minimum observed: 1480.48 on March 23. Required: below 1320. 1480.48 > 1320, therefore threshold NOT met. Direction also incorrect as won weakened instead of strengthened.

Resolved Apr 5, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongKRW

South Korean Won (USD/KRW) will strengthen below 1320 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as defense cooperation commitments and strategic positioning during wartime create safe-haven demand for regional stability anchor currencies

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-22 at 60% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-05. Brier score 0.362.

Derived from: Actor Intelligence showing South Korea 'balancing Trump administration requests for military commitments abroad while pursuing cautious diplomatic engagement', wartime regime elevating value of stable democratic allies in Asia, FX base rate supporting directional moves during geopolitical stress

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 5177d ago
Made: Mar 22

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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