MISSBrier 0.264

Web search found North Korea ballistic missile articles, but analysis of dates shows: 1) April 19 missile test was BEFORE prediction window (created April 25). 2) April 22 and April 30 Korean Peninsula Updates discuss general programs but no specific tests/announcements during Apr 25-May 2 window. All specific missile test activity occurred before prediction creation date. Actual: 0 events, Required: 1 event, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved May 2, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrong

North Korea will conduct at least one ballistic missile test or nuclear facility activity announcement within 7 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-25 at 51% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-05-02. Brier score 0.264.

Derived from: Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence on April 14 (Day of the Sun DPRK) with intensity 4/5 signal strength. Knowledge bank shows active North Korea nuclear missile intelligence with 100% confidence tagging. DPRK Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium points to ICBM launch strategy.

Probability: 51%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: May 2150d ago
Made: Apr 25

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will announce at least one military exercise or naval operation in South China Sea within 7 days

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At least one OPEC+ member country will announce emergency production capacity assessment or force majeure review within 14 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations escalate beyond current OPEC+ Production Decision fragile equilibrium

geopolitical20%MISS

Japan will announce at least one emergency diplomatic initiative or regional security partnership within 14 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% and Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence (April 14) force defensive positioning

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North Korea will conduct at least one ballistic missile test or nuclear facility activity announcement within 7 days

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