North Korea will conduct at least one ballistic missile test or nuclear facility activity announcement within 7 days
NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-25 at 51% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-05-02. Brier score 0.264.
Derived from: Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence on April 14 (Day of the Sun DPRK) with intensity 4/5 signal strength. Knowledge bank shows active North Korea nuclear missile intelligence with 100% confidence tagging. DPRK Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium points to ICBM launch strategy.
- Probability
- 51%
- Timeframe
- 7 days
- Deadline
- May 2150d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.