Amazon (AMZN) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $245.58, 5% from $258.51 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 37% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.135.

US-China Trade War Bayesian analysis shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, bearish 60% confidence) in a key sector overlapping AMZN's cloud/logistics exposure; combined with QQQ RSI 28.4 wartime risk-off tape and no fundamental catalyst for tech recovery per thesis.

Probability

37%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 218d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.