Materials sector ETF XLB will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $50.87, 3% from $52.44 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 36% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-11. Brier score 0.409.

US-China Trade War Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, bearish 60% confidence) plus Taiwan gray-zone escalation compounds industrial/materials demand risk from tariff and export-control retaliation.

Probability

36%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 218d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.