PARTIALBrier 0.425

MUFG price data from 2026-03-13 (creation date, close $16.43) to 2026-04-12 (deadline, current $18.05). Calculation: ((18.05 - 16.43) / 16.43) * 100 = 9.86% gain. The prediction required a decline of more than 6%, but MUFG gained 9.86%. Direction was incorrect (up vs predicted down), and the magnitude threshold was not met since it gained rather than declined. Actual: +9.86%, Required: decline >6%, therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 12, 2026

Market

SHORT correctJapanese_banks

Japanese bank stocks (represented by major banks like MUFG, SMFG, or Mizuho) will decline more than 6% from current levels within 30 days as yen weakness from energy import pressures and regional security costs stress financial sector margins

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-13 at 65% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-12. Brier score 0.425.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait 53% escalation probability in Bayesian analysis, Japan's energy import dependency during Hormuz tensions per actor intelligence, and wartime regime requiring direct impact modeling rather than diplomatic resolution assumptions

Probability: 65%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 12170d ago
Made: Mar 13

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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