Home Depot (HD) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $305.00, 5% from $321.05 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 34% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.437.

Risk-off equity regime (Fear & Greed 38, SPY/QQQ RSI capitulation) combined with Bayesian Fed hawkish-hold equilibrium raising rate-sensitivity concerns for housing-linked discretionary names not yet covered by pending predictions.

Probability

34%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 227d ago

Made

Sep 8

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.