KRE (Regional Banking ETF) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $68.27, 3% from $70.38 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-24.

Derived from: recently resolved KRE prediction (denied but directionally correct, fell -3.08% just short of a 4% 14-day target) plus Bayesian US Treasury Supply Crisis 'mixed' equilibrium (higher term premium demanded) and Fed Rate Cycle Pivot bearish equilibrium (hawkish hold) pressuring regional bank net-interest-margin outlooks.

Probability

85%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Oct 24in 25d

Made

Sep 24

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.