HITBrier 0.041

Early-confirmed: ORCL, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-17 through 2026-10-01. Target: below 136. Target hit on: 2026-09-28. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Sep 29, 2026

Market

SHORTORCL

ORCL (Oracle) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $136.00, 5% from $143.16 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 80% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-29. Brier score 0.041.

Probability: 80%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 1in 2d
Made: Sep 17

Price Target$136

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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