The Polish Zloty (USD/PLN) will weaken above 4.10 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as NATO Article 5 readiness escalation increases defense spending pressure on Eastern European fiscal positions

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 47% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.223.

Derived from: Multiple game theory scenarios show escalation probability >50% (Taiwan 53%, Hormuz 67%, Kashmir 73%). Poland faces dual pressure from defense expenditure increases and energy security costs. Major FX pair moves 1%+ observed at 63% base rate, adjusted for fiscal stress multiplier

Probability

47%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Mar 25188d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.