MISSBrier 0.017

Web search found limited evidence within March 22-29 window. Found general reports of 'Container lines reroute from Iran war' (March 13) and 'Middle East Escalation Disrupts Global Ocean and Air Freight Networks' (March 27) but no specific announcements of force majeure declarations by named major shipping companies within the 7-day window from March 22-29. Actual: 0 confirmed announcements, Required: at least 2, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 29, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrongshipping_announcements

At least 2 major shipping companies will announce Red Sea route diversions or force majeure declarations within 7 days as Strait of Hormuz tensions escalate beyond current Iranian naval warfare

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-22 at 13% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-29. Brier score 0.017.

Derived from: Knowledge bank shows active Strait of Hormuz disruption with Iranian attacks on oil tankers. Bayesian analysis indicates 67% escalation probability for Hormuz crisis. Live intelligence confirms sustained Iranian naval operations against shipping.

Probability: 13%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 29184d ago
Made: Mar 22

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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